What is the logic behind the fiery market of the North Stock Exchange?



From October 23rd to November 27th,breaking news the North Securities 50 Index rose by over 50%. On November 21, the turnover of the North Exchange was 10.272 billion yuan, and on November 27, the turnover exceeded 30 billion yuan. For a time, the tepid North Exchange market became the focus of hot discussion in the market. Since the beginning of this year, the overall performance of A-shares has been poor. What kind of investment logic is behind the fiery market of the North Stock Exchange? Can this fiery situation continue?

As an exchange specially established by the state to support the innovation and development of small and medium-sized enterprises, since its establishment in 2021, the North Stock Exchange has a certain gap with the broader market in terms of capital and liquidity. Talking about the reasons for the hot market of the North Exchange, Wang Hongying, president of the China (Hongkong) Financial Derivatives Investment Research Institute, said that the recent intensive policies of the state to support small and medium-sized science and technology enterprises have made the future growth and stock value of specialized and special new enterprises listed on the North Exchange favored by market investors.

On September 1st, China Securities Regulatory Commission issued "Opinions on High-quality Construction of Beijing Stock Exchange" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"), which introduced measures such as optimizing the implementation standard of "listing for twelve months", supporting science and technology innovation board investors to directly open the trading authority of the North Stock Exchange, and allowing private equity funds to participate in secondary market transactions, thus opening the way for more small and medium-sized enterprises with development potential to go public. According to the data of official website of the North Exchange, since the publication of the Opinions, 27 new enterprises have accepted the listing declaration. Judging from the enterprises in the queue, as of November 28, a total of 106 enterprises were in the stage of IPO review, including 7 accepted, 70 inquired, 21 suspended, 3 passed the meeting of the Shanghai Municipal Committee and 5 submitted registered enterprises.

Xu Ming, chief economic analyst of Henghua Agriculture, told the Futures Daily reporter that the state has proposed to speed up the construction of a financial power. As a part of the infrastructure of the financial market, the state also hopes that the North Exchange will become active and become the main position of innovative SMEs. In addition, the liquidity of the North Stock Exchange market itself is small. Although the whole market has risen for several days, the daily turnover is concentrated in more than 10 billion yuan. Compared with the hundreds of billions of yuan of the main board, the plates are relatively small and the funds are easy to pry.

Jin Yan of Youshan Fund said that the surge in shares of the North Exchange is inseparable from the vigorous promotion of funds, which can be seen from the market value and turnover rate of shares of the North Exchange. The average market value of Beizheng 50 shares is about 3.5 billion yuan, and the median is 2 billion yuan. It is impossible for institutional funds (including foreign capital) to intervene on a large scale. From October 23 to November 27, the North Securities 50 Index rose by 51.62%, during which the turnover rate was as high as 71%, which is not the operation method of large funds of institutions. 30% price limit, and there is no corresponding ETF and futures, etc., all make the stock of the North Exchange the best choice for capital speculation. The volatility of Beizheng 50 has increased from 20% at the end of October to about 40% at present. Therefore, investors should be cautious about the rising market of Beizheng 50, and can't blindly chase after it.

Looking back at this year's stock market, the overall performance is not ideal. In the tortuous recovery process, the market confidence is insufficient, and traders' trading behavior has become more cautious, and they dare not invest heavily easily. From the disk, the stock market is not liquid and the trading volume has dropped significantly. This change in investment psychology has also led to the popularity of microdisk strategy this year. As a gathering place for small and medium-sized enterprises, the North Stock Exchange, coupled with the enterprises listed on the New Third Board in the past two years, is very eye-catching in the average rate of return on the board, and there is a money-making effect, which undoubtedly lays the groundwork for the fiery market of the North Stock Exchange.

Xu Ming said that the change of investment style stems from the gap between people's expectations for the future. There is a limit to everything. When the microdisk strategy develops to the extreme, White Horse and Blue Chip will also have opportunities. The fund is very painful this year. In order to change the unfavorable situation, institutions will also find ways to guide value investment, including attracting some medium and long-term funds to invest in white horse stocks. However, in the case that it has not yet reached the extreme and the index stocks are under pressure, the market will still choose micro-disk stocks.

"The biggest problem facing the North Stock Exchange market is insufficient liquidity. Only by improving liquidity can we attract everyone's attention." Xu Ming said that expanding the market, enhancing market liquidity and reducing temporary volatility may be the next move of the North Exchange. In February this year, the North Exchange officially introduced the market-making trading mechanism. On November 20th, the North Stock Exchange has sent a letter of approval to Haitong, Guoyuan and other brokers for the evaluation and test of the stock market-making business of the North Stock Exchange. Up to now, five brokers have obtained the test letter. At the same time, on November 17, China Securities Index Corporation announced that it had decided to include the qualified securities of the North Exchange into the sample space of the CSI All-Index Index, which will be implemented on the regular adjustment day of the index sample in December 2023, and the liquidity of the North Exchange will be significantly improved.

The reporter noted that the rise of the Beizheng 50 index is often accompanied by the decline of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index. Regarding this phenomenon, Wang Hongying explained that China's stock market is a stock market to some extent. Some institutional funds withdraw from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange markets and invest in the North Stock Exchange market, which will lead to the rise of the North Stock Exchange market, resulting in a "seesaw" effect. From the exchange level, controlling the scale of issuing new shares and keeping the matching of stock supply and market stock funds are more conducive to the steady development of China's capital market.

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